# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-49ad08ec
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_5RLf6aEQEKkYJLNnRGCGd

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-49ad08ec -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probabilities right now for a US recession in 2025 — including volume and what the whales are betting?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from a live prediction market (Polymarket) rather than model-generated forecasts. Ideal for macro, crypto, political, and AI events where you want actual money-backed implied odds, trading volume context, and large-trader sentiment — not just news or analyst opinions.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword too vague or not matching any active Polymarket market — returns empty or no-match result
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream timeout or error response
- Payment not processed via x402 — 402 Payment Required response before data is returned
- Market has resolved and is no longer live — may return stale or closed market data

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, total market volume, and whale sentiment signals indicating how large traders are positioned on the outcome.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-49ad08ec/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)