# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given event topic or keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6fc5f289
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_Ly-QVQ-DdhBd6YztuSbOx

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6fc5f289 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a US recession happening this year, including current volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from a decentralized prediction market, especially for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI policy events. It is ideal when you want market-implied odds rather than model-generated forecasts, and when whale sentiment and trading volume provide additional signal. Prefer this over general news search when you need a quantitative probability rather than qualitative coverage.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Ambiguous topic resolves to multiple markets — response may include multiple entries requiring disambiguation
- Polymarket API or data feed downtime causes stale or unavailable data
- Overly broad topic returns too many markets with diluted signal
- Payment not processed via x402 — returns HTTP 402 Payment Required

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6fc5f289/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)