# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-88d7e5c1
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_PgF_u_layqwqwByFP_WuD

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-88d7e5c1 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for a Bitcoin ETF approval, including current volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events sourced from Polymarket's decentralized prediction market. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you want a quantified, market-based implied probability backed by real money. It is especially useful for agents doing risk assessment, scenario planning, or trading strategy that requires live prediction market intelligence.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream timeout or 5xx error
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return the most relevant or all matches
- Payment not processed (x402 flow failure) — endpoint returns 402 with payment details
- Stale data if Polymarket orderbook has low liquidity or the market has resolved

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-odds)

## Output

Returns live orderbook data from Polymarket for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages), current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for macro, crypto, and AI-related prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-88d7e5c1/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)