# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given topic or event keyword

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-a0ad3795
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_2YxkaYCXR3fbkNob-haHk

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-a0ad3795 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for 'Bitcoin ETF approval' — include volume and whale sentiment if available?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates from a live decentralized prediction market (Polymarket) rather than model-generated forecasts or news sentiment. Ideal for macro, crypto, and AI-policy events where market-implied probabilities and whale positioning provide unique signal unavailable from traditional data sources.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or no-results response
- Polymarket API or data feed is temporarily unavailable — service may return an error or stale data
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — response may include multiple or unexpected markets
- Payment not processed (x402 flow failure) — endpoint returns 402 before delivering data
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded — returns error after repeated rapid calls

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume figures, and whale sentiment indicators that reflect large-trader positioning on the event outcome.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-a0ad3795/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)