# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-aa6c89ba
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_NlBHR46aaBzLtrXskfW0G

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-aa6c89ba
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for a US recession in 2025 — including volume and whether whales are leaning Yes or No?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market. Prefer this over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by real money, orderbook depth, and whale positioning data. Best suited for agents doing risk assessment, event-driven trading research, or probability-weighted decision making.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result
- Topic query too vague to identify a specific market — may return multiple or unrelated markets
- Polymarket API upstream outage causing stale or unavailable data
- Payment failure via x402 protocol resulting in 402 response and no data returned
- Rate limiting if called too frequently in quick succession

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages), 24h trading volume, and whale/large-order sentiment signals for the relevant prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-aa6c89ba/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)