# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, Yes/No implied probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-d3759960
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_55vfb7DIPaq5ko5ho6K11

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-d3759960
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Fed rate cut in 2025' — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction markets for macro, crypto, or AI events — especially when you want implied Yes/No odds, volume, and whale-level sentiment rather than just news or analyst opinions. Prefer this over general news APIs or sentiment tools when you need quantified market consensus probabilities backed by actual money at stake.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream timeout or error response
- Topic too vague or ambiguous — returns multiple unrelated markets or low-confidence match
- Payment failure via x402 — 402 response if USDC payment is not properly attached
- Stale data if Polymarket orderbook has low liquidity or the market has resolved

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for matching prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-d3759960/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)