# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e3dce1fa
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_Mi1pkElhRkVZvFsVsiLmm

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e3dce1fa
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025'? Pull the orderbook and whale sentiment too.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's decentralized prediction markets, especially for macro, political, crypto, or AI events. Prefer this over traditional financial data APIs when you want implied market consensus and whale sentiment rather than price feeds. Best suited for agents that need live, on-chain-derived probability signals for decision-making or reporting.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream fetch failure
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return the most relevant or require a more specific query
- Payment not completed (HTTP 402) — endpoint requires $0.01 USDC per call via x402 protocol

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities, 24h trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the matching prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e3dce1fa/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)