# Stochastic Monte Carlo Price Simulator (Heston/Merton/Kou) for TCG Cards & Tokenized Assets

> Stochastic Monte Carlo Price Simulator (Heston/Merton/Kou) for TCG Cards & Tokenized Assets is a paid API for AI agents from oracle.the-undesirables.com, paid per call via x402, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Runs Monte Carlo price simulations using Heston, Merton, or Kou stochastic models to project future price trajectories and percentile distributions for tokenized real-world assets and physical trading cards.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://oracle.the-undesirables.com/api/v1/simulate
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/oracle-the-undesirables-com-b4836b78
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_hc8MQS7eA0Go8Zx9ahJCv

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability oracle-the-undesirables-com-b4836b78
```

Example prompt: Can you run a Heston Monte Carlo simulation for a Charizard Base Set PSA 10 currently priced at $8,500 over 60 days with 1,000 simulations, and show me the full percentile price distribution?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need stochastic price projections with percentile distributions specifically for physical trading cards (Pokémon, MTG) or tokenized real-world assets, and want to choose between Heston, Merton, or Kou models. It is best for risk analysis, scenario planning, or valuation range estimation on collectible or RWA assets rather than mainstream equities or crypto tokens with deep market data.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or unsupported model name returns an error
- Missing required query parameters (days, current_price, card_name) cause a bad request
- Extremely high simulation counts may time out or return degraded results
- Unknown or misspelled card names may fall back to inline_fallback source with generic volatility assumptions
- Network/service unavailability returns a non-200 status

## How this service works

Predict the future market value of any collectible trading card with a conformal-calibrated risk forecast (default): regime-aware split-conformal bands fit on real holdout residuals, returning calibrated forecast percentiles (5th–95th), honest VaR/CVaR, and Safe-Hold/Momentum letter grades. Monte Carlo models (GBM / Merton Jump-Diffusion with Poisson jumps) are available opt-in via model=. Covers Pokémon, Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, sports cards, and any tokenized real-world asset.

## Output

Returns a JSON object containing the asset name, model used, simulation count, day horizon, data source, and a percentile price distribution (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th percentile projected prices), along with call price ($0.015) and status.

## Example request

```json
{
 "input": {
  "type": "http",
  "method": "GET",
  "queryParams": {
   "days": 30,
   "model": "heston",
   "card_name": "Charizard Base Set PSA 8",
   "simulations": 500,
   "current_price": 5000
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "status": "ok",
  "forecast": {
   "50th_percentile": 224.5,
   "95th_percentile": 412.1
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/oracle-the-undesirables-com-b4836b78/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from oracle.the-undesirables.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/oracle.the-undesirables.com/llms.txt)