# polls.karbach.digital — Federal Election Simulation (Germany)

> polls.karbach.digital — Federal Election Simulation (Germany) is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns Monte-Carlo-based federal election simulation results for German state and federal elections, including party vote-share forecasts, historical errors, and turnout projections.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/results/federal/%7Bart%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-federal-election-simulation-germany-4a0ad6d3
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_QNEVTm2L-b_RGSh2opASE

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability polls-karbach-digital-federal-election-simulation-germany-4a0ad6d3
```

Example prompt: What does the polls.karbach.digital Monte Carlo model currently predict for the Bundestagswahl — give me the projected vote shares for all major parties and the model's historical accuracy?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need structured, quantitative German election forecasts backed by a calibrated Monte Carlo model (10,000 scenarios), especially for federal elections. Prefer it over raw poll aggregators when you want model-adjusted probabilities, historical validation metrics (MAE ±1.27 pp), and per-party error estimates rather than raw poll averages. Updated every 6 hours, making it suitable for near-real-time political monitoring.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or unknown election identifier ('art') returns an error or empty data
- Election slug not yet available (future or unannounced elections) returns null or missing data
- Stale data if update cycle (6h) is delayed
- Null confidence/uncertainty fields when no polls are available for a future election
- Network or rate-limit errors returning HTTP 4xx/5xx

## How this service works

Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.

## Output

A JSON object containing an array of election entries, each with: election name and slug, election date, previous election result (party vote shares), current model forecast (party vote shares), per-party forecast errors, voter turnout (actual and delta vs previous), mean absolute error for large parties, and optionally poll data and confidence/uncertainty metrics. Also includes source attribution, data license info, last-updated timestamp, and a disclaimer notice.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "elections": [
    {
     "name": "Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg",
     "wahl": "bw-2026",
     "datum": "2026-03-08",
     "vorwahl": "Landtagswahl 2021",
     "ergebnis": {
      "AfD": 18.8,
      "CDU": 29.7,
      "FDP": 4.4,
      "SPD": 5.5,
      "Linke": 4.4,
      "Grüne": 30.2
     },
     "prognose": {
      "AfD": 20.7,
      "CDU": 26.6,
      "FDP": 4.7,
      "SPD": 6.3,
      "Linke": 5.3,
      "Grüne": 29.7
     },
     "umfragen": null,
     "konfidenz": null,
     "beteiligung": 69.6,
     "fehler_je_partei": {
      "AfD": 1.9,
      "CDU": -3.1,
      "FDP": 0.3,
      "SPD": 0.8,
      "Linke": 0.9,
      "Grüne": -0.5
     },
     "beteiligung_delta": 5.8,
     "beteiligung_vorwahl": 63.8,
     "mae_grosse_parteien": 1.25,
     "mittlere_streuung_pp": null
    },
    {
     "name": "Landtagswahl Rheinland-Pfalz",
     "wahl": "rlp-2026",
     "datum": "2026-03-22",
     "vorwahl": "Landtagswahl 2021",
     "ergebnis": {
      "FW": 4.2,
      "AfD": 20,
      "CDU": 30.6,
      "SPD": 25.7,
      "Linke": 4.4,
      "Grüne": 7.9
     },
     "prognose": {
      "FW": 4.8,
      "AfD": 19.2,
      "CDU": 28.5,
      "SPD": 27,
      "Linke": 5,
      "Grüne": 8.8
     },
     "umfragen": null,
     "konfidenz": null,
     "beteiligung": 64,
     "fehler_je_partei": {
      "FW": 0.6,
      "AfD": -0.8,
      "CDU": -2.1,
      "SPD": 1.3,
      "Linke": 0.6,
      "Grüne": 0.9
     },
     "beteiligung_delta": -0.4,
     "beteiligung_vorwahl": 64.4,
     "mae_grosse_parteien": 1.05,
     "mittlere_streuung_pp": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
  "model": null,
  "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
  "source": {
   "polls": "dawum.de",
   "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
   "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
   "official_results": "Die Bundeswahlleiterin, Wiesbaden",
   "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/",
   "official_results_license": "Datenlizenz Deutschland Namensnennung 2.0"
  },
  "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-21T03:10:01",
  "uncertainty": null
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-federal-election-simulation-germany-4a0ad6d3/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.polls.karbach.digital](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.polls.karbach.digital/llms.txt)