# polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Results & Simulation

> polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Results & Simulation is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns historical election results and Monte-Carlo simulation forecasts for a specific German Bundestag constituency by number, including party vote shares and turnout across past elections.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/%7Bnr%7D/results?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-results-simulation-4a4dbe24
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_4eg-e6OZEG8sVWGpCZWHd

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-results-simulation-4a4dbe24
```

Example prompt: What were the historical election results and the current simulation forecast for German Bundestag constituency number 235 — show me party vote shares for both Erststimme and Zweitstimme across past elections?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need granular, constituency-level German Bundestag election data — both historical vote shares and simulation-based forecasts. Prefer it over national-level polling aggregators when the user wants district-specific (Wahlkreis) analysis, ticket-splitting behavior, or local party strength. Distinct from the sibling endpoint returning nationwide seat projections or state-level Landtag data.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or out-of-range constituency number returns an error or empty result
- Constituency number passed as string instead of integer may be rejected
- Endpoint returns stale data if updated less than 6 hours ago (normal refresh cycle)
- Some historical elections may have incomplete party data for smaller parties
- Network or payment authentication failure (x402 protocol) prevents access

## How this service works

Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.

## Output

A JSON object containing the constituency name, and a history object keyed by election year (e.g. btw2013, btw2017, btw2021) each containing: Erststimme percentage breakdown by party, Zweitstimme percentage breakdown by party, total eligible voters (wahlberechtigt), total votes cast (waehlende), voter turnout percentage (wahlbeteiligung_pct), and the winning party (gewaehlt_partei). May also include Monte-Carlo simulation output for upcoming elections.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "name": "Homburg",
   "history": {
    "btw2013": {
     "erst_pct": {
      "AfD": 4.64,
      "CDU": 39.77,
      "FDP": 1.36,
      "NPD": 1.61,
      "SPD": 37.62,
      "Linke": 9.06,
      "GRÜNE": 3.57,
      "PIRATEN": 2.37
     },
     "waehlende": 142644,
     "zweit_pct": {
      "FW": 0.67,
      "AfD": 5.6,
      "CDU": 36.59,
      "FDP": 3.79,
      "NPD": 1.75,
      "SPD": 31.89,
      "MLPD": 0.05,
      "Linke": 10.19,
      "GRÜNE": 5.12,
      "FAMILIE": 1.71,
      "PIRATEN": 2.48,
      "pro Deutschland": 0.16
     },
     "wahlberechtigt": 198117,
     "gewaehlt_partei": null,
     "wahlbeteiligung_pct": 72
    },
    "btw2017": {
     "erst_pct": {
      "FW": 1.24,
      "AfD": 11,
      "CDU": 33.56,
      "FDP": 5.14,
      "SPD": 31.41,
      "Linke": 10.97,
      "Grüne": 4.97,
      "Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands": 0.15,
      "Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative": 1.54
     },
     "waehlende": 145992,
     "zweit_pct": {
      "FW": 0.89,
      "AfD": 11.67,
      "CDU": 31.03,
      "FDP": 7.73,
      "SPD": 27.68,
      "Linke": 12.38,
      "Grüne": 5.65,
      "Deutsche Mitte": 0.18,
      "Partei der Vernunft": 0.08,
      "Bündnis Grundeinkommen": 0.15,
      "Piratenpartei Deutschland": 0.45,
      "Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands": 0.54,
      "Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands": 0.08,
      "Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative": 1.23
     },
     "wahlberechtigt": 192410,
     "gewaehlt_partei": null,
     "wahlbeteiligung_pct": 75.88
    },
    "btw2021": {
     "erst_pct": {
      "FW": 3.16,
      "AfD": 11.61,
      "CDU": 26.12,
      "FDP": 7.89,
      "SPD": 36.59,
      "Linke": 5.24,
      "Grüne": 4.89,
      "Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei": 0.64,
      "Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland": 1.49,
      "Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative": 2.35
     },
     "waehlende": 142288,
     "zweit_pct": {
      "FW": 2.4,
      "AfD": 11.49,
      "CDU": 22.88,
      "FDP": 11.24,
      "SPD": 37.24,
      "Linke": 6.61,
      "Piratenpartei Deutschland": 0.58,
      "PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ": 2.89,
      "Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei": 0.46,
      "Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland": 1.34,
      "Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutsch
… (truncated)
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-results-simulation-4a4dbe24/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.polls.karbach.digital](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.polls.karbach.digital/llms.txt)