# polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Simulation > polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Simulation is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28). Returns Monte-Carlo-based election scenario projections (10,000 simulations) for a specific German Bundestag constituency, including party vote shares with confidence intervals, socioeconomic structure data, and 2025 actual results. ## Facts - Endpoint: GET https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/%7Bnr%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz - Price: $0.02/call - Payment: x402 - Status: unknown - Last checked: 2026-10-28 - Activations on Zero: 0 - Tags: x402 - Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-simulation-576a6a57 - Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_XZhKuOUfA_sXUH_XnRip0 Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently. ## How to call it through Zero Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`): ```sh zero fetch --capability polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-simulation-576a6a57 ``` Example prompt: What are the projected Erststimme and Zweitstimme vote shares for each major party in constituency 299 (Homburg) for the 2029 Bundestag election, including confidence intervals? ## When to prefer this Choose this endpoint when you need constituency-level (Wahlkreis) granularity for German Bundestag election forecasts, with probabilistic uncertainty quantification (confidence intervals from 10,000 Monte Carlo runs). It is superior to national-level poll aggregators when the user cares about a specific district's direct mandate race (Erststimme) or wants socioeconomic context alongside electoral projections. Calibrated against 34 historical elections (MAE ±1.27pp), making it suitable for serious political analysis, journalism, or campaign research. ## Known failure modes - Invalid or out-of-range constituency number returns an error (valid range: 1–299 for Bundestag) - Constituency number passed as string vs integer may cause parsing issues - Truncated or incomplete response if upstream polling data (dawum.de) is stale - Data updated every 6 hours — very recent polling shifts may not yet be reflected - Payment failure (x402 protocol) results in 402 response and no data returned ## How this service works Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert. ## Output A JSON object containing: constituency name, state abbreviation, current MPs, socioeconomic structure (unemployment rate, GDP per capita, Abitur share, population density, area, car ownership, age distribution, foreign national share, income), swing type classification, scenario_2029 with Erststimme and Zweitstimme percentage projections plus 90%+ confidence intervals (ci_low/ci_high) for all major parties (AfD, BSW, FDP, SPD, Linke, Grüne, CDU/CSU), actual 2025 election results, list of similar constituencies with similarity scores, data source attribution, and last-updated timestamp. ## Request schema (JSON Schema) ```json { "type": "object", "properties": { "properties": { "type": "string" } } } ``` ## Response schema (JSON Schema) ```json { "type": "json", "example": { "data": { "name": "Homburg", "state": "SL", "members": [ { "name": "Esra Limbacher", "party": "SPD" }, { "name": "Michael „Moses“ Arndt", "party": "Die Linke" } ], "structure": { "land": "Saarland", "wk_nr": 299, "wk_name": "Homburg", "alo_quote": 6.6, "bip_je_ew": 39444, "abitur_pct": 32.7, "bev_dichte": 444.8, "flaeche_km2": 550.2, "pkw_je_1000": 661.6, "alter_u18_pct": 15.7, "auslaender_pct": 13.9, "alter_60_74_pct": 22.2, "einkommen_je_ew": 23126, "alo_quote_frauen": 5.9 }, "swing_type": "regional", "constituency": 299, "scenario_2029": { "erst": { "AfD": { "pct": 31.2, "ci_low": 26.5, "ci_high": 35.8 }, "BSW": { "pct": 0, "ci_low": 0, "ci_high": 1 }, "FDP": { "pct": 3.3, "ci_low": 1.9, "ci_high": 4.7 }, "SPD": { "pct": 27.4, "ci_low": 23.2, "ci_high": 31.7 }, "Linke": { "pct": 7.9, "ci_low": 6, "ci_high": 9.8 }, "Grüne": { "pct": 5.9, "ci_low": 4.2, "ci_high": 7.6 }, "CDU/CSU": { "pct": 21.2, "ci_low": 17.7, "ci_high": 24.7 } }, "zweit": { "AfD": { "pct": 32.1, "ci_low": 27.3, "ci_high": 36.9 }, "BSW": { "pct": 4.1, "ci_low": 2.6, "ci_high": 5.6 }, "FDP": { "pct": 4, "ci_low": 2.5, "ci_high": 5.5 }, "SPD": { "pct": 18.3, "ci_low": 15.2, "ci_high": 21.4 }, "Linke": { "pct": 8.6, "ci_low": 6.6, "ci_high": 10.6 }, "Grüne": { "pct": 9, "ci_low": 7, "ci_high": 11 }, "CDU/CSU": { "pct": 16.9, "ci_low": 13.9, "ci_high": 19.9 } } }, "result_btw2025": { "erst": {}, "zweit": { "AfD": 23.7, "BSW": 5.8, "FDP": 4.2, "SPD": 22, "Linke": 6.7, "Grüne": 6.6, "CDU/CSU": 26.1 } }, "similar_constituencies": [ { "name": "St. Wendel", "wk_nr": 298, "bundesland": "SL", "similarity": 0.982 }, { "name": "Saarlouis", "wk_nr": 297, "bundesland": "SL", "similarity": 0.978 } ] }, "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/", "model": null, "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. … (truncated) ``` ## More - Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-simulation-576a6a57/health.json - [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt) - [Other services from api.polls.karbach.digital](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.polls.karbach.digital/llms.txt)