# polls.karbach.digital — German Election Live Results & Simulation

> polls.karbach.digital — German Election Live Results & Simulation is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns live Monte-Carlo election simulation results and (if finalized) actual vote share data for a specific German state or federal election by election ID.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/live/%7Beid%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-election-live-results-simulation-fc695c56
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_nxYLaSOQfvLmLazs4qtEU

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability polls-karbach-digital-german-election-live-results-simulation-fc695c56
```

Example prompt: Can you pull the latest Karbach.Digital election simulation results for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl — I want to see the predicted vs actual party vote shares and how far off the model was for each party?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need poll-based Monte-Carlo scenario analysis or live/final results for a specific German federal or state election, especially when you need both predicted and actual vote share comparison with calibrated accuracy metrics. It covers 18 German elections, is updated every 6 hours, and is validated against 34 historical elections with MAE ±1.27 pp — making it more rigorous than a simple poll aggregator.

## Known failure modes

- Unknown or unsupported election ID returns an error or empty data
- Election not yet started may return only simulation data with no actual shares
- Partial count data may be unstable until is_final=true
- Model covers only 18 German elections; non-German or unsupported elections will fail
- Rate limiting or payment failure (x402) if USDC payment not properly attached

## How this service works

Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.

## Output

A JSON object containing: predicted vote shares per party, actual vote shares (if available), mean absolute error (MAE), voter turnout, per-party deviation in percentage points, election name and date, percentage of votes counted, whether the result is final, data source attribution (polls from dawum.de under ODbL 1.0), and a notice about coalition arithmetic. Updated every 6 hours.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "mae": 1.44,
   "actual": {
    "FW": 0.4,
    "AfD": 38.2,
    "BSW": 4.8,
    "CDU": 4.9,
    "FDP": 1,
    "SPD": 35.5,
    "ÖDP": 0.1,
    "Linke": 6.5,
    "Grüne": 5.7,
    "PIRATEN": 0.2,
    "Bündnis C": 0.1,
    "Die PARTEI": 0.3,
    "Tierschutzpartei": 1.1,
    "Handwerker Partei Deutschland": 0.5
   },
   "turnout": 78.1,
   "is_final": true,
   "predicted": {
    "AfD": 36.8,
    "BSW": 4,
    "CDU": 6.6,
    "FDP": 2,
    "SPD": 34.2,
    "Linke": 9.8,
    "Grüne": 5.1
   },
   "wahl_name": "Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern",
   "wahl_datum": "2026-09-20",
   "counted_pct": 100,
   "election_id": "mv-2026",
   "deviation_pp": {
    "AfD": 1.4,
    "BSW": 0.8,
    "CDU": -1.7,
    "FDP": -1,
    "SPD": 1.3,
    "Linke": -3.3,
    "Grüne": 0.6
   }
  },
  "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
  "model": null,
  "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
  "source": {
   "count": "Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern",
   "polls": "dawum.de",
   "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
   "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
   "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
  },
  "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-21T02:57:01.985630",
  "uncertainty": "During the count actual shares move; is_final marks the official preliminary result."
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-election-live-results-simulation-fc695c56/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.polls.karbach.digital](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.polls.karbach.digital/llms.txt)