# polls.karbach.digital — German Election Simulation by Election ID

> polls.karbach.digital — German Election Simulation by Election ID is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns a Monte-Carlo-based election simulation (10,000 scenarios) for a specific German state or federal election, including party vote share distributions, seat projections, coalition probabilities, and recent poll data.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/elections/%7Beid%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-election-simulation-by-election-id-2e8a4db8
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_-qJrssxNQoj-MdxM0any8

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability polls-karbach-digital-german-election-simulation-by-election-id-2e8a4db8
```

Example prompt: What are the current seat projections and coalition probabilities for the Saarland Landtagswahl 2027 — including which parties are likely to enter parliament and the probability of a CDU+SPD majority?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need probabilistic, simulation-backed election projections for a specific German state or federal election rather than raw poll averages. It is the right choice when you need seat distributions, coalition arithmetic probabilities, or confidence intervals — not just headline numbers. Prefer it over raw polling aggregators when the user wants scenario analysis or wants to understand electoral uncertainty quantitatively.

## Known failure modes

- Unknown or unsupported election ID returns an error or empty data
- Election ID with no or very few polls yields a low data quality score and wide confidence intervals
- Stale data if no polls have been published recently (latest_poll_days_ago may be high)
- API may return 402 Payment Required if USDC payment via x402 is not properly attached
- Malformed election ID (e.g. wrong format) may result in a 404 or validation error

## How this service works

Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.

## Output

A JSON object containing: election metadata (name, date, region, seat count, seat allocation method), per-party results (poll average, median simulation result, 95% CI for vote share and seats, parliament entry probability), strongest-party probability breakdown, arithmetic coalition majority probabilities, recent individual poll results with institute names, a data quality assessment (score 1–10, poll count, recency), and Monte Carlo model metadata (version, simulation count, weighting method). Updated every 6 hours.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "parties": [
    {
     "ci95": [
      20.9,
      35.3
     ],
     "name": "SPD",
     "party": "SPD",
     "seats": {
      "ci95": [
       11,
       20
      ],
      "mean": 15.3,
      "median": 15
     },
     "median": 27,
     "poll_average": 27,
     "entry_probability": 100
    },
    {
     "ci95": [
      18.7,
      33.8
     ],
     "name": "CDU",
     "party": "CDU",
     "seats": {
      "ci95": [
       10,
       19
      ],
      "mean": 14.2,
      "median": 14
     },
     "median": 25,
     "poll_average": 25,
     "entry_probability": 100
    }
   ],
   "election": {
    "id": "sl-2027",
    "date": "2027-04-18",
    "name": "Landtagswahl Saarland",
    "seats": 51,
    "region": "SL",
    "days_until": 181,
    "seat_method": "dhondt"
   },
   "data_quality": {
    "label": "grob",
    "inputs": {
     "n_polls": 5,
     "mean_sigma_pp": 3.06,
     "days_to_election": 181,
     "latest_poll_days_ago": 319
    },
    "score_1_to_10": 3
   },
   "recent_polls": [
    {
     "date": "2025-12-03",
     "results": {
      "AfD": 23,
      "BSW": 3,
      "CDU": 25,
      "SPD": 27,
      "Linke": 7,
      "Grüne": 7
     },
     "institute": "Infratest dimap"
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-04-02",
     "results": {
      "AfD": 17,
      "BSW": 4,
      "CDU": 27,
      "FDP": 3,
      "SPD": 30,
      "Linke": 8,
      "Grüne": 6
     },
     "institute": "Infratest dimap"
    }
   ],
   "arithmetic_majorities": [
    {
     "coalition": "GroKo (CDU+SPD)",
     "probability_arithmetic_majority": 91.7
    },
    {
     "coalition": "CDU+AfD",
     "probability_arithmetic_majority": 71.6
    }
   ],
   "strongest_party_probability": {
    "AfD": 16.4,
    "CDU": 30.2,
    "SPD": 53.3
   }
  },
  "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
  "model": {
   "version": "4.16",
   "polls_used": 5,
   "simulations": 10000,
   "point_estimate": "weighted_poll_avg (Fenster 5, temporal_decay_14d + institute_quality)"
  },
  "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
  "source": {
   "polls": "dawum.de",
   "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
   "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
   "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
  },
  "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
  "updated_at": "2026-1
… (truncated)
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/polls-karbach-digital-german-election-simulation-by-election-id-2e8a4db8/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.polls.karbach.digital](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.polls.karbach.digital/llms.txt)