# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from polymarket-odds.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://polymarket-odds.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: polymarket-odds.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://polymarket-odds.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/polymarket-odds-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-a505d3b1
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_w9UPNqbd3q3or9WEAKS1X

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability polymarket-odds-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-a505d3b1
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probability for the US entering a recession in 2025 — include the Yes/No probabilities, volume, and any whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-implied probabilities from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events — especially when you want actual market-derived probability estimates rather than model forecasts or news sentiment. Prefer this over general news APIs when you need quantified crowd conviction (Yes/No probability percentages) and volume-weighted whale activity signals.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return the most popular or first match without disambiguation
- Polymarket API downstream outage — endpoint may return stale or error response
- Very niche or recently created markets may have low liquidity and unreliable implied probabilities
- Payment failure via x402 — call returns HTTP 402 if USDC payment is not properly attached

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://polymarket-odds.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes probability, implied No probability, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the matching prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/polymarket-odds-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-a505d3b1/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from polymarket-odds.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/polymarket-odds.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)