# Predge Whale Data — Single-Market Smart-Money Verdict

> Predge Whale Data — Single-Market Smart-Money Verdict is a paid API for AI agents from api.predge.io, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Returns an edge-based smart-money directional verdict (yes/no/split) plus whale trade breakdown and confidence rating for a single Polymarket prediction market identified by conditionId.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://api.predge.io/v1/signals/market/:conditionId
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/predge-whale-data-single-market-smart-money-verdict-c42bf11b
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_83qrIbSMEO01kzSjOOGXA

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability predge-whale-data-single-market-smart-money-verdict-c42bf11b
```

Example prompt: Check the Predge smart-money verdict for Polymarket condition 0x3a4b5c6d7e8f9a0b1c2d3e4f5a6b7c8d9e0f1a2b — are edge-proven whales leaning YES or NO, and how confident is the signal?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a single-market, per-cycle smart-money verdict for a specific Polymarket condition and want an actionable yes/no/split direction with honest confidence scoring. It is purpose-built for agents that iterate over a list of markets one at a time. Prefer the consensus endpoint if you need cross-market aggregate signals. Prefer this over generic Polymarket data sources when you want edge-filtered whale intelligence (luck-damped, Wilson-bound edge criterion) rather than raw volume or price data.

## Known failure modes

- Invalid or malformed conditionId (not a valid 0x Polymarket condition hash) returns an error
- Market not found on Polymarket returns empty or 404-style response
- Insufficient whale activity in the last 24h results in confidence=none and direction=split
- Smart-money population too small (fewer than required qualifying wallets) causes low or none confidence
- Payment not fulfilled (x402 protocol) results in 402 Payment Required
- Rate limiting if called too rapidly in a loop

## How this service works

Single-market smart-money VERDICT for one Polymarket market (path param: conditionId, 0x… Polymarket condition id) — the "should you trust this move?" decision, built to be looped once per market per cycle. This is /v1/signals/consensus scoped to one market: SAME edge-based smart-money population (a wallet qualifies when its luck-damped realized edge over the last 30d — Wilson-95%-lower-bound(live win rate) − avg entry price — exceeds 0, from RESOLVED outcomes, with the same >= 10 trades / >= $1,000 floors), and the SAME direction rule (>= 55% of smart volume / >= 10% imbalance => "yes"/"no", else "split"). Returns market metadata (title, category, yes_price, status, and resolution/resolved_at when settled), the edge-proven smart-money read for whale trades (>= $10,000) in the last 24h — distinct smart wallets, YES/NO split, net flow (USD), direction verdict — plus total-vs-smart whale volume and a plain confidence (none|low|medium|high) + basis an agent can act on. Honest degradation via {"insufficient_data": true, "reason": ...} when too few smart wallets have touched the market. 404 (not charged) for a condition id unknown to the Predge dataset. 15 min delay.

## Output

Returns a JSON object containing: market metadata (title, category, current yes_price, status, and resolution/resolved_at if settled); a smart-money whale signal block covering the last 24 hours of trades >= $10,000 (distinct qualifying smart wallets, YES vs NO volume split, net USD flow, and a direction verdict of yes/no/split); total vs smart whale volume figures; and a plain-language confidence level (none/low/medium/high) plus a human-readable basis string explaining why that confidence was assigned. Degrades honestly when data is insufficient.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "pathParams": {
     "type": "object"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {}
    }
   },
   "additionalProperties": false
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "type": "object"
    }
   }
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/predge-whale-data-single-market-smart-money-verdict-c42bf11b/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.predge.io](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.predge.io/llms.txt)