# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from preflight.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0c73dda0
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_AjG62OyO01XLii8Dvmesi

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0c73dda0
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of 2025 — including volume and whether whales are leaning Yes or No?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's live orderbook — especially when you want implied probability percentages, volume signals, and whale sentiment rather than news headlines or analyst opinions. Prefer this over general news search when quantitative market-derived probabilities are needed for decision-making or research.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is experiencing latency
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — response may include multiple events
- Payment failure via x402 if USDC balance is insufficient — HTTP 402 returned
- Network timeout if orderbook fetch is slow during high-volume market events

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0c73dda0/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from preflight.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/preflight.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)