# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from preflight.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches real-time Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5ac714c1
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_I9wZmYH_yy2MVTJgVA0Hp

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5ac714c1
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in Q3 2025? Include volume and whale sentiment.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for discrete future events — particularly macro, crypto, or AI policy events — where Polymarket has an active trading market. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want financially-staked implied probabilities rather than editorial opinion, and over static forecasting models when you need live, continuously-updated market consensus.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword too vague or ambiguous — returns no matching market or incorrect market
- Polymarket has no active market for the queried event — empty or null result
- Rate limiting or payment failure (HTTP 402) due to insufficient USDC balance
- Network timeout if Polymarket API is temporarily unavailable
- Stale data if orderbook has not had recent activity

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators derived from large-order activity on the market.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5ac714c1/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from preflight.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/preflight.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)