# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from preflight.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-723eaf57
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_jwf7208FMnp1bNk6_xwYz

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-723eaf57
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2025? I also want to know the volume and whether whales are leaning Yes or No.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as reflected in actual money-at-risk on Polymarket. Ideal when you want not just sentiment but implied probability backed by live orderbook liquidity and whale activity, rather than news sentiment or social media polling. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when the user explicitly wants prediction market odds or probability estimates for a future event.

## Known failure modes

- No matching market found for the given topic — returns empty or null market data
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return incorrect or unexpected market
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causing stale or missing data
- Misspelled or overly specific topic fails to match any active market
- Topic references a settled or expired market with no live orderbook

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)

## Output

Returns a structured response with live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total market volume, whale sentiment signals, and relevant metadata for the queried prediction market topic or event keyword.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-723eaf57/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from preflight.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/preflight.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)