# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from preflight.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://preflight.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-83672cd3
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_85D5xfq7aRjjE-D9fgFyD

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-83672cd3
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for the Fed cutting interest rates in Q3, including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks. Prefer it over news APIs or LLM-generated forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by actual money, volume data, and whale activity. Best used for financial agents, political forecasting bots, or risk assessment workflows that require live, tradeable probability signals rather than static analyst opinions.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — response may return multiple or unexpected markets
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causing stale or missing data
- Payment failure via x402 protocol resulting in 402 response and no data returned
- Topic string too vague to resolve a specific market, leading to low-confidence or mismatched results

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators — giving a crowd-sourced probability snapshot for the specified event or question.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-83672cd3/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from preflight.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/preflight.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)