# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2285d281
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap__M36l4TdRQdwpeyY4DfoK

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2285d281
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for Bitcoin hitting $100k before the end of the year — including volume and what whale traders are positioning?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's active orderbooks. It is preferable over news sentiment APIs when you want financially-backed implied probabilities rather than qualitative sentiment, and over static data sources when you need live, up-to-the-minute market odds and whale positioning data.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — may return empty or low-confidence results
- Topic too vague or ambiguous leading to mismatched market selection
- Polymarket API upstream unavailability causing stale or missing data
- Payment failure via x402 resulting in 402 response without data
- Rate limiting if called at high frequency

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities as percentages, total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals derived from large-order activity on the relevant prediction market.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2285d281/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)