# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5ce05f5c
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_I9mWO8ljGjGzdcpTE4Oso

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5ce05f5c
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025' — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events as priced by actual money at stake on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment tools when you want market-implied probabilities rather than editorial opinion, and over generic odds APIs when Polymarket's specific orderbook and whale activity data is needed.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or null results
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return the most popular or first match
- Polymarket API downtime causes stale or unavailable data
- Payment failure via x402 returns HTTP 402 with no data
- Highly niche or newly created markets may have low liquidity and unreliable probability signals

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the relevant prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5ce05f5c/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)