# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/crypto-betting-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5f6ec47a
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_UJyP_BelvXSEXpBx3uiN4

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5f6ec47a
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied yes/no probability for Bitcoin ETF approval this quarter — including volume and what the whale traders are doing?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need live, real-time implied probabilities and crowd wisdom from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks for crypto, macro, political, or AI events. Prefer this over news sentiment or social media analysis when you want market-priced probability estimates backed by actual money. Best for quantitative agents that need a numeric probability estimate rather than qualitative sentiment.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result
- Topic string too vague to match a specific market — may return multiple or unrelated markets
- Market may be resolved/closed — data reflects final settlement rather than live odds
- Payment failure via x402 if USDC balance is insufficient — HTTP 402 returned
- Rate limiting or upstream Polymarket API downtime causing stale or missing data

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/crypto-betting-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket data for the queried topic including implied Yes/No probabilities as percentages, orderbook snapshot, cumulative trading volume, and whale/large-trader sentiment signals for the matched prediction market.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5f6ec47a/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)