# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI prediction market topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f8545f43
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_IyqkbT-G2eFv1ETyUcogs

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f8545f43
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probability for the Fed cutting interest rates at the next FOMC meeting — including volume and what whale traders are betting?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction market for macro, crypto, or AI events — especially when you want not just odds but also volume and whale sentiment to gauge conviction. Prefer this over generic news sentiment APIs when you want market-implied probabilities rather than qualitative sentiment, and over static data sources when you need live orderbook data.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is temporarily unavailable
- Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple unrelated markets — results may include irrelevant markets
- Payment failure via x402 resulting in 402 response before data is returned
- Rate limiting or timeout if the upstream Polymarket feed is under heavy load

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for relevant macro, crypto, or AI prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/prompt-guard-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f8545f43/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/prompt-guard.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)