# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from sec-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: sec-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-243028a4
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_p-4Re2LWCDz0S5K0wcEad

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-243028a4
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for a US recession in 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks, especially when you want implied Yes/No odds, volume context, and whale sentiment in a single call. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you specifically want market-priced probability rather than editorial opinion or social media sentiment.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — returns upstream error
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or top-ranked results without clear disambiguation
- Payment not fulfilled (HTTP 402) — call rejected before data is returned
- Stale data if Polymarket orderbook has low liquidity or market has resolved

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-243028a4/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from sec-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)