# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from sec-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: sec-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-73615701
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_cMWH0rioZwCG2FKyF6obX

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-73615701 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for Bitcoin hitting $100k this year — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-wisdom probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as priced by actual money on Polymarket. It is the right choice when you want implied probabilities backed by real financial stakes rather than sentiment surveys or news headlines. Prefer this over general news search when you need a single quantified probability or orderbook-level market depth for a specific event outcome.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or null result
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return the most popular or an unexpected market
- Polymarket API upstream outage — endpoint returns 503 or error payload
- Payment failure via x402 — returns HTTP 402 if USDC payment is not settled
- Rate limiting — returns 429 if too many calls in short succession

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators derived from large-order activity in the market.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-73615701/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from sec-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)