# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from sec-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events given a topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: sec-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e33a6438
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_tupbU_U0dGmMKcI1mO1Ui

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e33a6438
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes probability for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025' — I want to see current orderbook volume and whale sentiment too.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market. It is ideal when you want market-implied odds rather than model-generated forecasts, or when you want to gauge whale sentiment and trading volume around a specific event. Prefer this over news search when you need a single numerical probability estimate backed by real financial stakes.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result
- Topic keyword too vague to resolve to a specific market — multiple markets returned or ambiguous match
- Polymarket API upstream unavailable — gateway or timeout error
- Payment not processed (HTTP 402) — call not executed without valid x402 micropayment
- Stale data if Polymarket orderbook has low liquidity or market has resolved

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the queried topic or event question. May include the specific market matched, current bid/ask spreads, and market activity indicators.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-e33a6438/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from sec-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)