# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from serp-extract.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: serp-extract.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0c64dc7f
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_UWLfgP7gLo2GK2V_DMs4T

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0c64dc7f
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for 'Fed rate cut in 2025' — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction markets for macro, crypto, or AI events, especially when you want implied Yes/No odds, orderbook depth, volume, and whale positioning in a single structured response. Prefer this over static news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-priced probabilities backed by real money.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the topic — returns empty or low-confidence results
- Polymarket API or data feed downtime — upstream data unavailable
- Ambiguous topic resolves to multiple markets — may return first match or require refinement
- Payment not completed (HTTP 402) — call blocked if x402 payment flow not handled
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded — repeated calls may be throttled

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "limit": {
   "type": "integer",
   "default": 20,
   "maximum": 100,
   "minimum": 1,
   "description": "Maximum number of items to return per page (1-100)"
  },
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  },
  "cursor": {
   "type": "string",
   "description": "Opaque pagination cursor for fetching the next page"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0c64dc7f/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from serp-extract.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)