# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from serp-extract.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given topic or event keyword

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: serp-extract.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2182052d
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_UJV36HomG0sB6U9Mp8zcs

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2182052d -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability right now for 'Will the Fed cut rates in September?' — pull the orderbook data and whale sentiment too.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need live, real-time prediction market probabilities from Polymarket specifically — particularly for macro events, crypto price milestones, geopolitical outcomes, AI regulation, or Fed policy decisions. Prefer this over general news sentiment APIs when you want crowd-sourced, financially-backed probability estimates rather than media tone analysis. Best when the user wants a quantified implied probability (e.g. '73% Yes') rather than qualitative sentiment.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or low-confidence results
- Stale data if Polymarket API is delayed or rate-limited upstream
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple markets — may return the wrong market
- Payment failure via x402 protocol results in 402 response and no data returned
- Broad or vague topic queries may return aggregated or irrelevant markets

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live orderbook data from Polymarket for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, trading volume metrics, and whale sentiment signals for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2182052d/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from serp-extract.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)