# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from serp-extract.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: serp-extract.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-446cec02
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_RugD19KmzKVDnWeg89zb8

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-446cec02 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probabilities right now for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in Q3 2025 — including volume and any whale sentiment signals?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks — particularly for macro events, crypto milestones, AI developments, or political outcomes. Prefer this over news sentiment tools when you want quantified implied probability with volume and whale flow data rather than qualitative opinion. Best suited for agents performing event-driven financial analysis, risk assessment, or real-time forecasting grounded in market participant behavior.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or low-confidence result
- Polymarket API or orderbook data temporarily unavailable — upstream fetch failure
- Topic query too vague or ambiguous — may return unrelated markets
- Payment not processed (HTTP 402) — x402 micropayment required before response is returned
- Rate limiting or timeout on downstream Polymarket data source

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages), current trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and market metadata for relevant active prediction markets matching the input keyword or question.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/serp-extract-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-446cec02/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from serp-extract.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/serp-extract.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)