# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8fada66a
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_uLzTJUxs4s70QpvXhO5Ps

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8fada66a
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds right now on the Fed cutting interest rates in 2025 — give me the implied Yes/No probabilities and any whale sentiment you can find?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction market rather than news sentiment or analyst forecasts. Ideal for agents that need quantitative implied-probability signals for macro, crypto, or political events, especially when whale and orderbook-level intelligence is needed alongside top-level odds.

## Known failure modes

- Topic query matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty result or null probabilities
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or mismatched data
- Payment failure via x402 — returns HTTP 402 if USDC micropayment is not provided
- Polymarket API upstream outage — returns error or stale data
- Very niche or newly created markets may have low liquidity and unreliable implied probabilities

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities as percentages, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators reflecting large-position trader activity.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8fada66a/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)