# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-91f17eb0
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_z-ZTg1fvGGefgOuAPbyNy

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-91f17eb0
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds right now for the Fed cutting interest rates in 2025 — give me the implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and any whale sentiment signals?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as reflected by actual money on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment or social media analysis when you want financially-backed implied probabilities and orderbook depth. Best for agents monitoring event outcomes, building trading signals, or summarizing market consensus on upcoming events.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword too vague or ambiguous — returns no matching market or irrelevant results
- Polymarket has no active market for the requested topic — empty or null result returned
- Upstream Polymarket data feed latency or downtime causes stale or unavailable data
- Payment not completed via x402 — returns HTTP 402 Payment Required before data is served
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded for the $0.01/call pricing tier

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals indicating large-position holder bias for or against the event occurring.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-91f17eb0/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)