# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-c4851ad1
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_H50XgKML0bltoLbg22s1t

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-c4851ad1
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for the US entering a recession in 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events as reflected by actual money at risk on Polymarket. It is preferable over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by financial incentives, whale positioning, and live orderbook data. Best suited for agents doing event-driven trading research, risk assessment, or decision support tied to binary outcomes.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Topic string too vague or ambiguous, returning unrelated markets
- Polymarket API upstream outage or rate limiting causing stale or failed data fetch
- Payment failure via x402 protocol preventing request completion
- Malformed topic query (empty string despite minLength:1 constraint)

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), orderbook snapshots, total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching market questions.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-c4851ad1/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)