# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-412a5adf
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_5R6L0Vq89-u8ZTCr8M_GH

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-412a5adf
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a Fed interest rate cut happening this quarter — and is there any whale accumulation signal in the orderbook?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction market for macro, crypto, election, or AI events — especially when you want both implied probabilities and whale/orderbook sentiment signals in a single call. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when quantified market-based probability is needed.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword returns no matching Polymarket market — market may not exist or keyword is too vague
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream dependency failure
- Payment not processed — x402 payment required before response is returned
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return the most relevant or an error requiring clarification
- Stale orderbook data if Polymarket feed is delayed

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, current trading volume, and whale sentiment/accumulation signals — giving a real-time crowd-sourced probability estimate for the specified event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-412a5adf/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)