# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-49c4ef25
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_FUim3DxZEQWaGcajnE7bf

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-49c4ef25
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for the Fed cutting rates in 2025, including current volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, political, crypto, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks. Prefer this over static news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by real money and want to see whale positioning alongside volume signals.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream fetch failure
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return the most popular match or require refinement
- Network timeout on live orderbook fetch — slow or missing response
- Payment not processed (x402) — endpoint returns 402 Payment Required

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured response containing the live Polymarket orderbook for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, total trading volume, and whale accumulation or sentiment signals for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-49c4ef25/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)