# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-72c963ef
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_kkCsQuErx4TjDFEYNqNFt

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-72c963ef
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for the Fed cutting interest rates in 2025, including whale sentiment and volume?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates and market sentiment for macro, geopolitical, crypto, or AI events — specifically sourced from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks. Prefer this over news or social sentiment endpoints when you want financially-staked probability signals and whale order flow rather than opinion or media volume.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or low-confidence result
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causes stale or missing data
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets, returning aggregated or mixed results
- Payment not processed correctly via x402 protocol, resulting in 402 error and no data returned
- Network timeout if Polymarket orderbook is slow to respond

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, total market volume, and whale sentiment signals derived from large-order flow analysis across macro, crypto, and AI event markets.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-72c963ef/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)