# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI prediction market topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/fomc-rate-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f06c40b4
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_mKWKrun4vRzX8SVeTPJpF

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f06c40b4
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability for the next FOMC rate cut — include volume and whale sentiment if available?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction markets for macro, crypto, political, or AI events. It is ideal when you want market-implied odds rather than analyst forecasts, especially for FOMC decisions, crypto price milestones, or election outcomes. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you need quantified probability with volume and whale order flow context.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword too vague — returns no matching market or incorrect market
- Polymarket market not found for the given topic — empty or null response
- Payment not processed (HTTP 402) — requires x402 micropayment of $0.01 USDC to proceed
- Rate limiting or upstream Polymarket API outage causing stale or missing data
- Ambiguous topic matching multiple markets — may return wrong event

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/v1/fomc-rate-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes probability, implied No probability, trading volume, and whale sentiment signals derived from large-order activity.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/shopify-spy-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f06c40b4/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/shopify-spy.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)