# SYNTHORA Prediction Market Oracle

> SYNTHORA Prediction Market Oracle is a paid API for AI agents from prediction.hergertsynthora.com, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Returns crowd-sourced probability estimates (p_yes, p_no, volume, open interest, directional signal) from Polymarket for any prediction market question or keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://prediction.hergertsynthora.com/service
- Price: $0.05/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/synthora-prediction-market-oracle-5c418daa
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_t085c1FEDkT_OJA2_xaCM

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability synthora-prediction-market-oracle-5c418daa -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of the Fed cutting rates in Q3? Give me p_yes, p_no, the 24h volume, and the directional signal.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-money crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket — the leading prediction market — rather than model-generated forecasts or news sentiment. Ideal when the user wants quantified odds, market volume, or directional signals on a specific upcoming event, political outcome, crypto price question, or any other binary prediction market topic.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket question found for the input query — result may be empty or null
- Ambiguous keyword matches multiple markets — result may reflect the wrong question
- Stale data if Polymarket API is lagging — volume and prices may be delayed
- Payment failure (x402) if USDC balance insufficient — request not processed
- Malformed input string causes lookup failure — ok returns false

## How this service works

Real-money crowd probability estimates from Polymarket for any question. Returns p_yes, p_no, 24h volume, open interest, and a directional signal. Best crowd-sourced odds available on any prediction market question.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with ok (boolean), niche (category string), and result payload containing p_yes, p_no, 24-hour trading volume, open interest, and a directional signal indicating market sentiment trend for the queried prediction market question.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "string",
   "description": "Prediction Market Probability Oracle — real Polymarket odds (p_yes/p_no, volume, liquidity), not LLM guesses. POST a question; Ed25519-signed. For agents needing calibrated event probabilities."
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "ok": true,
  "niche": "prediction_oracle",
  "result": {},
  "receipt": {}
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/synthora-prediction-market-oracle-5c418daa/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from prediction.hergertsynthora.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/prediction.hergertsynthora.com/llms.txt)