# Taifoon Mech Predict – Probabilistic Yes/No Forecasting

> Taifoon Mech Predict – Probabilistic Yes/No Forecasting is a paid API for AI agents from coord.taifoon.dev, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-20).

Accepts a yes/no question and returns a probabilistic forecast with p_yes, p_no, confidence, and info_utility scores grounded in real market tape data

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://coord.taifoon.dev/v1/x402/class/mech.predict?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-20
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/taifoon-mech-predict-probabilistic-yes-no-forecasting-448ac5c8
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_spwC5hLSTC2P6kIJISZf3

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability taifoon-mech-predict-probabilistic-yes-no-forecasting-448ac5c8 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What's the probability that Bitcoin will be above $100,000 on December 31, 2026? Give me the p_yes, p_no, and confidence score using Taifoon's prediction tape.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need a structured probabilistic forecast (p_yes/p_no with confidence) for a yes/no financial or market question, especially one referencing crypto or CME micro-futures prices. Prefer it over generic LLM reasoning when you want the probability grounded in actual live market tape (OHLCV candle data) rather than static training knowledge. It is particularly valuable for trading agents, prediction market participants, and automated risk assessment workflows that need machine-readable probability outputs rather than qualitative answers.

## Known failure modes

- Question shorter than 8 characters or exceeds 2000 characters — 400 validation error
- Ambiguous question that is not clearly yes/no may produce low confidence and info_utility scores
- Tape data unavailable for the referenced asset — forecast may lack grounded sources
- Missing or invalid API key (X-API-Key) — 401 or 402 response; endpoint also returns get_key guidance for unauthenticated callers
- Network timeout if tape candle data feed is slow
- Asset not supported (non-BTC/ETH/SOL/NQ/ES/YM questions) may result in low-quality or ungrounded forecasts

## How this service works

Olas-style yes/no forecast: { question } in, { p_yes, p_no, confidence, info_utility } out with reasoning and sources. BTC/ETH/SOL price questions with a threshold and a date are modelled from the Taifoon venue tape (sources replayable); any other question is a small open model's prior with no web search (no sources, confidence at most 0.3). Checked before you are charged. 0.01 USDC a forecast.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with a forecast object containing p_yes and p_no probabilities, a confidence score (0–1), an info_utility score (0–1), a reasoning string explaining the lognormal model and tape-grounded inputs, an array of sources (market tape candles with URLs), a follow_up object with an ID and state for async resolution, and a requestId. Also returns the original prompt echoed back and the tool name ('prediction-tape').

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "question": {
   "type": "string",
   "maxLength": 2000,
   "minLength": 8,
   "description": "one yes/no question (or the Olas prompt \"With the given question \\\"…\\\" …\")"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "tool": "prediction-tape",
  "prompt": "Will Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 31, 2026?",
  "result": "{\"p_yes\":0.31,\"p_no\":0.69,\"confidence\":0.6,\"info_utility\":0.7}",
  "forecast": {
   "p_no": 0.69,
   "p_yes": 0.31,
   "sources": [
    {
     "url": "https://clob.taifoon.dev/tape/v1/candles/BTC/1m?from=…&to=…",
     "kind": "tape",
     "what": "the last closed 1-minute BTC bar (its close is the spot)",
     "as_of": "…",
     "value": 0
    }
   ],
   "grounded": "tape",
   "reasoning": "BTC closed at … USD on the Taifoon venue tape …; a driftless lognormal price ends at or above 100,000 with probability 0.31. …",
   "confidence": 0.6,
   "info_utility": 0.7
  },
  "follow_up": {
   "id": "fc_…",
   "state": "PENDING",
   "resolver": "tape"
  },
  "requestId": "fc_…"
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/taifoon-mech-predict-probabilistic-yes-no-forecasting-448ac5c8/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from coord.taifoon.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/coord.taifoon.dev/llms.txt)