# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from token-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2c5a9320
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_LLdOFoK3N6QfykJlxVy7I

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2c5a9320
```

Example prompt: What are the current live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability for 'Will the Fed cut rates in September 2025'? Show me the volume and whale sentiment too.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction market, especially for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related events. It is the right choice when you want market-implied odds rather than analyst forecasts, and when whale sentiment or trading volume context is needed to assess conviction behind a probability estimate.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null results
- Topic keyword too vague — may return unrelated or low-relevance markets
- Polymarket API unavailability or rate limiting causing stale or failed responses
- Payment failure via x402 resulting in HTTP 402 error before data is returned
- Ambiguous topic matching multiple markets with conflicting probabilities

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the matched prediction market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-2c5a9320/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from token-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/token-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)