# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from token-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-35a5c518
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_J4oxbexXz5PfU7NRTqDEz

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-35a5c518
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for the US entering a recession in 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events, particularly when you want market-implied odds rather than model-based forecasts. Prefer this over news APIs when you need a quantified probability signal with volume and whale sentiment context. Best suited for agents doing event-driven analysis, trading research, or sentiment monitoring on Polymarket-listed markets.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or no-match response
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or top-result data
- Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causing stale or failed data fetch
- Very new or niche topics with low liquidity may return low-confidence odds
- Network or payment (x402) failure resulting in HTTP 402 or timeout error

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities derived from the orderbook, current trading volume, and whale (large trader) sentiment indicators for the matched market event.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-35a5c518/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from token-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/token-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)