# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from token-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Fetches real-time Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given prediction market topic or event keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-prediction-stream?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5eaed648
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_2LdfSvXZnJ0edN5SA72I9

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5eaed648 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for a Fed interest rate cut happening before the end of this year — and is there any whale activity on that market?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events — specifically sourced from Polymarket's orderbook. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you want market-implied probability (with real money at stake) rather than social media sentiment. Best suited for agents making decisions based on event probability, risk assessment, or market intelligence.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Stale or delayed orderbook data if Polymarket API is experiencing downtime
- Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple markets — may return the most popular match or require disambiguation
- Payment failure if x402 USDC micropayment is not correctly processed
- Rate limiting or timeout if Polymarket upstream is under heavy load

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-prediction-stream)

## Output

Returns real-time Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as decimal percentages), total trading volume, and a whale sentiment signal derived from large-order activity. The response reflects live market conditions at time of request.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5eaed648/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from token-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/token-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)