# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from token-intel.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-23).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-23
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-ef3fa798
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_Ij_KAegbdYSH51gWNcUym

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-ef3fa798 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025' — include volume and whale sentiment if available?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction markets for macro, crypto, political, or AI events. It is ideal when you want market-implied probabilities rather than analyst forecasts, and when whale sentiment and orderbook depth are relevant signals. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you need a quantified probability (0-100%) rather than qualitative sentiment, and over static forecast services when you need live, continuously updated market data.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Stale or unavailable orderbook data if Polymarket API is experiencing downtime
- Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return unexpected market data
- Payment failure (HTTP 402) if x402 micropayment is not completed correctly
- Rate limiting or quota exhaustion returning 429 or error response

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://token-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities derived from orderbook prices, total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for macro, crypto, political, or AI-related events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/token-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-ef3fa798/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from token-intel.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/token-intel.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)