# Treasury Yield Curve Spread & Recession Signal

> Treasury Yield Curve Spread & Recession Signal is a paid API for AI agents from agent402.tools, paid per call via x402, $0.005/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns derived 2s10s and 3m10y Treasury yield-curve spreads in basis points plus a boolean recession-signal flag indicating curve inversion, sourced from FRED constant-maturity yields.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://agent402.tools/api/yield-curve-spread
- Price: $0.005/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/treasury-yield-curve-spread-recession-signal-f064e461
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_1qmAvdjnd4CT7ltx4O9dm

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability treasury-yield-curve-spread-recession-signal-f064e461
```

Example prompt: What's the current Treasury yield curve spread — give me the 2s10s and 3m10y spreads in basis points and tell me whether the recession-inversion signal is currently triggered.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a quick, no-parameter snapshot of the US Treasury yield curve inversion status with both the classic 2s10s and the Fed-preferred 3m10y spreads in a single call, sourced from authoritative FRED data. Prefer this over manually fetching individual Treasury yields and computing spreads yourself. Ideal for macro dashboards, recession-monitoring agents, or any workflow that needs a precomputed, authoritative inversion signal without doing the math.

## Known failure modes

- FRED data source temporarily unavailable — upstream dependency outage returns error
- Stale data if FRED hasn't published the latest constant-maturity rates yet
- HTTP 402 Payment Required if x402 payment header is missing or insufficient
- Network timeout if agent402.tools infrastructure is under load

## How this service works

Derived 2s10s and 3m10y Treasury yield-curve spreads (in basis points) plus a boolean recession-signal flag when the curve is inverted. Source: FRED constant-maturity yields (public domain). No params.

## Output

Returns two yield-curve spreads derived from FRED constant-maturity yields: the 2-year vs 10-year (2s10s) spread and the 3-month vs 10-year (3m10y) spread, both expressed in basis points, plus a boolean flag that is true when either spread is negative (curve inverted), indicating a potential recession signal.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "asOf": "FRED constant-maturity Treasury yields",
  "recordDate": "2026-06-12",
  "inverted2s10s": true,
  "inverted3m10y": true,
  "spread2s10sBps": -27,
  "spread3m10yBps": -88
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/treasury-yield-curve-spread-recession-signal-f064e461/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from agent402.tools](https://www.zero.xyz/host/agent402.tools/llms.txt)