# Vextorium Polymarket Crypto Implied Probability Distribution

> Vextorium Polymarket Crypto Implied Probability Distribution is a paid API for AI agents from api.vextorium.com, paid per call via x402, $0.004/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-29).

Returns the implied probability distribution of a crypto asset's price from Polymarket ladder markets, including per-level probabilities and an implied median price, for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://api.vextorium.com/polymarket-precio-cripto-pago?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.004/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-29
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/vextorium-polymarket-crypto-implied-probability-distribution-ef420add
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_gQ8oVDa9l9yen9MFHxQ1B

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability vextorium-polymarket-crypto-implied-probability-distribution-ef420add -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What does Polymarket's ladder market imply about the probability distribution for Bitcoin prices — show me the per-level probabilities and the implied median.

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need market-implied probability distributions for crypto prices derived from real prediction market liquidity on Polymarket, rather than model-based forecasts. Prefer it over on-chain price feeds when you want crowd-sourced probability estimates across multiple future price levels, not just current spot prices. Ideal for options pricing, risk analysis, or research that requires a probability distribution rather than a point estimate.

## Known failure modes

- Unsupported asset string returns an error or empty result — only 'bitcoin', 'ethereum', 'solana', 'xrp' are valid
- Polymarket may have no active ladder markets for the requested asset at time of call, returning an empty events array
- Stale or low-liquidity markets may produce wide probability bands or unreliable medians
- Missing 'activo' field in request body may cause validation error
- Network or upstream Polymarket API unavailability causes failure

## How this service works

Implied probability distribution of a crypto price from Polymarket ladder markets ("Will BTC be above X on date D?"): probability for each price level and date and the implied median. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.

## Output

A JSON object with the asset name, a disclaimer note, and an array of events. Each event includes the event title, settlement date/time, an array of price levels with their probability-of-being-above percentage, and an approximate implied median price derived from the ladder market probabilities.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "activo": {
   "type": "string",
   "description": "bitcoin, ethereum, solana, xrp"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "nota": "Probabilidades implícitas por el mercado; no son predicciones garantizadas. Fuente: Polymarket.",
  "activo": "bitcoin",
  "eventos": [
   {
    "cierre": "2026-10-02T21:00:00Z",
    "evento": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 2, 5PM ET?",
    "niveles": [
     {
      "nivel": 82200,
      "prob_por_encima_pct": 50
     },
     {
      "nivel": 82400,
      "prob_por_encima_pct": 50
     }
    ],
    "mediana_implicita_aprox": 82200
   },
   {
    "cierre": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z",
    "evento": "Bitcoin above ___ on October 3?",
    "niveles": [
     {
      "nivel": 74000,
      "prob_por_encima_pct": 99.95
     },
     {
      "nivel": 76000,
      "prob_por_encima_pct": 99.9
     }
    ],
    "mediana_implicita_aprox": 86000
   }
  ]
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/vextorium-polymarket-crypto-implied-probability-distribution-ef420add/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from api.vextorium.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/api.vextorium.com/llms.txt)