# LoneStarOracle Weather Forecast

> LoneStarOracle Weather Forecast is a paid API for AI agents from weather.lonestaroracle.xyz, paid per call via x402, $0.020000/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).

Returns GFS and ECMWF ensemble-based temperature probability forecasts optimized for NWS weather prediction markets

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://weather.lonestaroracle.xyz/forecast
- Price: $0.020000/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-14
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/weather-lonestaroracle-xyz-b7ccb316
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_D4VXHvPeMIzoNnE-bhL4S

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability weather-lonestaroracle-xyz-b7ccb316
```

Example prompt: What's the GFS+ECMWF ensemble probability that the temperature in Dallas exceeds 95°F this Friday, based on the NWS prediction market forecast?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need ensemble-blended (GFS + ECMWF) temperature probability estimates specifically for NWS-style weather prediction markets, rather than a simple deterministic temperature forecast. Ideal for agents trading or evaluating weather derivative positions.

## Known failure modes

- Location not supported or unrecognized — 400 or empty result
- Forecast horizon out of range — model data unavailable beyond certain days
- Payment not received or x402 flow incomplete — 402 Payment Required
- Model data temporarily unavailable due to upstream GFS/ECMWF ingestion delays — 503 or stale data warning
- Invalid temperature threshold parameter — validation error

## How this service works

GFS+ECMWF ensemble temperature probability for NWS weather prediction markets

## Output

Returns ensemble-blended probability estimates for temperature outcomes (e.g. probability of exceeding a threshold), drawn from both GFS and ECMWF models, suitable for use in NWS weather prediction market positions.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "name": "LoneStarOracle — WeatherOracle",
 "tags": [
  "weather",
  "forecast",
  "prediction-market",
  "kalshi",
  "probability",
  "gfs"
 ],
 "type": "object",
 "version": "1.0.0",
 "category": "weather",
 "required": [
  "input"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "input": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type",
    "method"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string",
     "const": "http"
    },
    "method": {
     "enum": [
      "GET",
      "HEAD",
      "DELETE"
     ],
     "type": "string"
    },
    "queryParams": {
     "type": "object",
     "properties": {
      "city": {
       "type": "string",
       "title": "City"
      },
      "date": {
       "type": "string",
       "title": "Date"
      },
      "direction": {
       "type": "string",
       "title": "Direction",
       "default": "greater"
      },
      "threshold": {
       "type": "number",
       "title": "Threshold"
      }
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "output": {
   "type": "object",
   "required": [
    "type"
   ],
   "properties": {
    "type": {
     "type": "string"
    },
    "example": {
     "city": "Chicago",
     "summary": "Chicago on 2026-04-26: P(high > 73°F) = 31.2% | Mean 71.4°F ± 3.2°F | Confidence: medium",
     "days_out": 5,
     "direction": "greater",
     "confidence": "medium",
     "std_high_f": 3.2,
     "data_source": "7-model consensus via Open-Meteo: GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, HRRR, NAM, NBM (all free)",
     "mean_high_f": 71.4,
     "target_date": "2026-04-26",
     "threshold_f": 73,
     "prob_exceeds": 0.312,
     "ensemble_members": 31,
     "rain_probability": 0.18
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "description": "7-model consensus + 80 ensemble members (GEFS 30 + ECMWF 50). Returns blended prob_exceeds (empirical + Gumbel), trade signal (YES/NO/PASS), ensemble_empirical_prob, method_divergence (forces PASS if >0.15), and outlier model. Coordinates aligned to NWS ASOS settlement stations used by Kalshi and Polymarket."
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/weather-lonestaroracle-xyz-b7ccb316/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from weather.lonestaroracle.xyz](https://www.zero.xyz/host/weather.lonestaroracle.xyz/llms.txt)