# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from workflows.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: workflows.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://workflows.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-018fbd98
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_kQIfwFDIs_92h83WPXeMN

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-018fbd98
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds right now for the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2025 — give me the implied yes/no probabilities, volume, and any whale sentiment signals?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, geopolitical, crypto, or AI events as reflected in live prediction market trading activity on Polymarket. Prefer this over static news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied odds backed by real money and whale order flow. It is especially useful for trading bots, risk models, or research agents that need continuously updated event probabilities rather than periodic survey data.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result
- Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or first-match data
- Polymarket API unavailability or rate limiting causes stale or missing data
- Very niche or newly created markets may have low liquidity, leading to unreliable implied probabilities
- Misspelled or overly broad topic queries may return unrelated market data

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, 24-hour trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators derived from large-order activity on the market.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-018fbd98/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from workflows.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/workflows.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)