# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from workflows.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.

## Facts

- Endpoint: POST https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-28
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: workflows.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://workflows.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1ddecd60
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_AYp7EX_grxU8OGuyRCJoO

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1ddecd60 -d '<json body>'
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?' — also show me volume and whale sentiment on that market.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates and orderbook sentiment from Polymarket specifically, especially for macro events, crypto price milestones, geopolitical outcomes, or AI policy questions. It is preferable over general news or sentiment APIs when you want quantified, financially-backed implied probabilities rather than qualitative sentiment. Best for agents that need live market-based forecasting data rather than static model predictions.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket markets — returns empty or low-confidence result
- Polymarket API upstream outage — service may return 502 or timeout
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple unrelated markets — may return blended or incorrect market data
- Payment failure via x402 — returns 402 with payment required details
- Rate limiting or quota exceeded — returns 429 or equivalent error

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities as percentages, total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals indicating large-position trader bias for macro, crypto, geopolitical, and AI-related prediction market events.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1ddecd60/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from workflows.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/workflows.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)