# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from workflows.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.01/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: workflows.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://workflows.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f9dda59b
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_TsDY-Buhg30kCD8t8mjRl

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f9dda59b
```

Example prompt: What does Polymarket currently say about the probability of a Fed rate cut in 2025 — give me the live Yes/No odds, volume, and whale sentiment?

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as reflected in actual money markets rather than polls or analyst forecasts. It is especially useful when whale sentiment and orderbook depth are needed alongside implied probabilities, and when the question maps naturally to a Polymarket prediction market. Prefer this over general news APIs when you need quantified probability rather than narrative, and over static data sources when you need live, continuously updated market consensus.

## Known failure modes

- Topic keyword too vague returns no matching market or empty results
- Polymarket market not found for niche or obscure event topics
- Payment failure via x402 protocol results in 402 response blocking data access
- Rate limiting or upstream Polymarket API downtime causes delayed or unavailable data
- Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets, returning mixed or aggregated results

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket prediction market data including implied Yes/No probabilities, orderbook depth, 24h trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the queried event topic, enabling agents to gauge crowd-sourced market consensus on future outcomes.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f9dda59b/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from workflows.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/workflows.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)