# Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed

> Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed is a paid API for AI agents from x402-audit.agentdiet.dev, paid per call via MPP, $0.015/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-21).

Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given prediction market topic or event keyword.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-audit.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz
- Price: $0.015/call
- Payment: MPP
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-10-21
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Provider: x402-audit.agentdiet.dev
- Website: https://x402-audit.agentdiet.dev
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-audit-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-9ad4a1c8
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_DorAfxY7MSr-4GLahQc6t

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-audit-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-9ad4a1c8
```

Example prompt: What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for 'US enters recession in 2025'? I want to see the Yes/No probabilities, volume, and any whale sentiment.

## When to prefer this

Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events as reflected by actual money on Polymarket. It is ideal for agents that need to ground decisions or reports in prediction market sentiment rather than news or analyst opinion. Prefer this over general news APIs when you specifically want implied probability, orderbook depth, or whale position data from a decentralized prediction market.

## Known failure modes

- No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results
- Polymarket API upstream unavailability causing stale or failed data fetch
- Ambiguous topic string matching multiple markets — may return unexpected or multiple results
- Payment failure via x402 ($0.015 USDC) resulting in HTTP 402 before data is returned
- Rate limiting or timeout on high-traffic market queries

## How this service works

Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://x402-audit.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)

## Output

Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), 24h trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and relevant market metadata such as question text and market identifiers.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "required": [
  "topic"
 ],
 "properties": {
  "topic": {
   "type": "string",
   "minLength": 1,
   "description": "Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object"
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-audit-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-9ad4a1c8/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-audit.agentdiet.dev](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-audit.agentdiet.dev/llms.txt)