# x402-factory Bitcoin Above $100k End-of-Year Probability

> x402-factory Bitcoin Above $100k End-of-Year Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-15).

Returns the live consensus probability that Bitcoin will trade above $100k at year end, aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, with auto-roll to the next annual instance on resolution.

## Facts

- Endpoint: GET https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy
- Price: $0.02/call
- Payment: x402
- Status: unknown
- Last checked: 2026-09-15
- Activations on Zero: 0
- Tags: x402
- Canonical page: https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-bitcoin-above-100k-end-of-year-probability-3c03911b
- Structured record (JSON): https://api.zero.xyz/v1/capabilities/cap_cnEDpIRdouCOfPVxboCVD

Status and success rate cover calls made through Zero and Zero's own probes. Third-party monitors may report differently.

## How to call it through Zero

Zero handles the 402 payment challenge and records the run. With the Zero CLI installed (`npm i -g @zeroxyz/cli`):

```sh
zero fetch --capability x402-factory-bitcoin-above-100k-end-of-year-probability-3c03911b
```

Example prompt: What are the current prediction market odds that Bitcoin will trade above $100k by end of this year, and is there any divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket?

## When to prefer this

Use this endpoint when you need a stable, evergreen URL for the Bitcoin $100k year-end question that automatically tracks the current annual instance without updating your integration. Prefer this over scraping individual Kalshi or Polymarket pages when you want aggregated cross-venue consensus and built-in roll-forward behavior. Best suited for dashboards, agents, or workflows that need a single persistent endpoint for this recurring crypto milestone question.

## Known failure modes

- Payment failure if x402 USDC payment of $0.02 is not completed correctly
- No active market available if neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a live instance of this question
- Stale data if upstream prediction market APIs are temporarily unavailable
- Divergence value may be zero if only one venue has an active market
- rolls_to_next_at may be null if no future roll is scheduled

## How this service works

Live probability: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.

## Output

Returns a JSON object with a consensus probability (0–1) for BTC above $100k at year end, per-venue breakdown (Kalshi and Polymarket) each with implied probability, 24h volume in USD, and liquidity score, plus overall divergence between venues, last 1-hour probability move, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, the current active market slug, and a rolls-to-next timestamp indicating when the question will auto-advance to the next annual instance.

## Request schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "object",
 "properties": {
  "properties": {
   "type": "string"
  }
 }
}
```

## Response schema (JSON Schema)

```json
{
 "type": "json",
 "example": {
  "data": {
   "slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12",
   "topic": "btc-above-100k-eoy",
   "category": "crypto",
   "question": "Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?",
   "per_venue": [
    {
     "venue": "kalshi",
     "implied_p": 0.6534,
     "market_id": "KXBITCOINABOVE10",
     "volume_24h_usd": 278227.41,
     "liquidity_score": 0.948
    },
    {
     "venue": "polymarket",
     "implied_p": 0.6439,
     "market_id": "bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12",
     "volume_24h_usd": 132320.07,
     "liquidity_score": 0.932
    }
   ],
   "divergence": 0.0095,
   "probability": 0.6492,
   "current_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12",
   "last_move_1h": 0.0023,
   "topic_question": "Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end?",
   "resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
   "rolls_to_next_at": "2026-12-31",
   "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if BTC/USD trades above $100,000 at the Dec 31 close reference."
  },
  "meta": {
   "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.btc-above-100k-eoy",
   "sources": [
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket"
   ],
   "version": "1.0.0",
   "endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy",
   "data_mode": "live",
   "freshness": "realtime",
   "request_id": "req_00000000",
   "generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.085Z"
  }
 }
}
```

## More

- Live health (JSON, refreshed every minute): https://www.zero.xyz/c/x402-factory-bitcoin-above-100k-end-of-year-probability-3c03911b/health.json
- [Zero catalog index](https://www.zero.xyz/llms.txt)
- [Other services from x402-factory.com](https://www.zero.xyz/host/x402-factory.com/llms.txt)